New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays projection, 2026-10-05
The model gives the New York Yankees a 52% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Division Series at Tropicana Field, with a projected score of NYY 4.0, TB 3.6 and about 7.6 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.
Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 30.1% and put on 8.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him. Freddy Peralta (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 25.9% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .289 xwOBA against him.
NYY's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (23 weighted pitches over the last three days). TB's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (7 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Tropicana Field plays 5% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Jeremie Rehak has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for NYY the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs) and for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-13% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | NYY 52% · TB 48% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | NYY 4.0 – 3.6 TB |
| Projected total runs | 7.6 |
| One-run game | 34% |
| NYY starter | Cam Schlittler (RHP): projected 30.1% strikeouts, 8.2% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| TB starter | Freddy Peralta (RHP): projected 25.9% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| Ballpark | Tropicana Field (run factor -5.4%) |
New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays · Cam Schlittler · Freddy Peralta
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