New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays projection, 2026-10-03
The model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 51% chance of beating the New York Yankees in the AL Division Series at Tropicana Field, with a projected score of NYY 4.0, TB 3.8 and about 7.8 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 24.9% and put on 7.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Drew Rasmussen (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 6.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .291 xwOBA against him.
NYY's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (11 weighted pitches over the last three days). TB's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Tropicana Field plays 5% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Shane Livensparger has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for NYY the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs) and for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | NYY 49% · TB 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | NYY 4.0 – 3.8 TB |
| Projected total runs | 7.8 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| NYY starter | Gerrit Cole (RHP): projected 24.9% strikeouts, 7.1% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| TB starter | Drew Rasmussen (RHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 6.8% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Tropicana Field (run factor -5.2%) |
New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays · Gerrit Cole · Drew Rasmussen
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