Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: AL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Tampa Bay Rays (1 seed, 98-64) vs New York Yankees (4 seed, 93-68), best of 5. Tampa Bay Rays 100% to win the series; expected length 3 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | TB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | TB | Drew Rasmussen vs Cam Schlittler | 51% |
| Game 2 | TB | Nick Martinez vs Max Fried | 49% |
| Game 3 | NYY | Freddy Peralta vs Gerrit Cole | 46% |
| Game 4 | NYY | Griffin Jax vs Carlos Rodón | 45% |
| Game 5 | TB | Drew Rasmussen vs Cam Schlittler | 51% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | TB wins | NYY wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 games | 11.3% | 13.7% | 25.0% |
| 4 games | 16.3% | 21.3% | 37.6% |
| 5 games | 19.1% | 18.3% | 37.4% |
The chance this series needs all 5 games is 37.4%; a 3-0 sweep by either side is 25.0%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | TB | 180.0 | 184 | 26.5% | 2.65 |
| Cam Schlittler (RHP) | NYY | 204.1 | 251 | 31.1% | 2.47 |
| Nick Martinez (RHP) | TB | 183.2 | 112 | 15.2% | 3.14 |
| Max Fried (LHP) | NYY | 124.1 | 117 | 24.5% | 2.9 |
| Freddy Peralta (RHP) | TB | 173.2 | 159 | 21.3% | 4.77 |
| Gerrit Cole (RHP) | NYY | 132.0 | 136 | 25.2% | 3.61 |
| Griffin Jax (RHP) | TB | 114.1 | 120 | 25.7% | 4.49 |
| Carlos Rodón (LHP) | NYY | 84.1 | 91 | 26.8% | 3.2 |
Tampa Bay Rays · New York Yankees · Bracket
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