Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves: NL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Los Angeles Dodgers (2 seed, 100-62) vs Atlanta Braves (3 seed, 94-68), best of 5. Los Angeles Dodgers 100% to win the series; expected length 4 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | LAD win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | LAD | Tarik Skubal vs Chris Sale | 60% |
| Game 2 | LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Tyler Mahle | 65% |
| Game 3 | ATL | Blake Snell vs Grant Holmes | 59% |
| Game 4 | ATL | Tyler Glasnow vs Martín Pérez | 62% |
| Game 5 | LAD | Tarik Skubal vs Chris Sale | 60% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | LAD wins | ATL wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 games | 22.9% | 5.8% | 28.7% |
| 4 games | 27.0% | 10.5% | 37.6% |
| 5 games | 20.2% | 13.5% | 33.8% |
The chance this series needs all 5 games is 33.8%; a 3-0 sweep by either side is 28.7%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal (LHP) | LAD | 164.2 | 193 | 30.1% | 2.9 |
| Chris Sale (LHP) | ATL | 175.1 | 219 | 31.2% | 2.57 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | LAD | 192.0 | 192 | 26.2% | 2.62 |
| Tyler Mahle (RHP) | ATL | 162.1 | 147 | 22.1% | 3.99 |
| Blake Snell (LHP) | LAD | 46.1 | 60 | 31.3% | 2.14 |
| Grant Holmes (RHP) | ATL | 154.1 | 116 | 17.7% | 3.62 |
| Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | LAD | 78.2 | 103 | 33.4% | 3.43 |
| Martín Pérez (LHP) | ATL | 142.0 | 102 | 17.1% | 3.36 |
Los Angeles Dodgers · Atlanta Braves · Bracket
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