Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers projection, 2026-10-03
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 70% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with a projected score of ATL 3.9, LAD 5.7 and about 9.6 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Dylan Dodd (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 21.8% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .289 xwOBA against him. Tarik Skubal (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 31.0% and put on 5.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .258 xwOBA against him.
ATL's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (48 weighted pitches over the last three days). LAD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium plays 0% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 100°F with 2 mph wind; Roberto Ortiz has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-18% to their expected runs) and for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+16% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 30% · LAD 70% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 3.9 – 5.7 LAD |
| Projected total runs | 9.6 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| ATL starter | Dylan Dodd (LHP): projected 21.8% strikeouts, 7.8% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| LAD starter | Tarik Skubal (LHP): projected 31.0% strikeouts, 5.9% walks + HBP, 5.9 innings |
| Ballpark | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (run factor +0.5%) |
Atlanta Braves · Los Angeles Dodgers · Dylan Dodd · Tarik Skubal
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