Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-10-07
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 59% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series at Truist Park, with a projected score of LAD 4.9, ATL 3.8 and about 8.6 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Tyler Glasnow (RHP, LAD) projects to strike out 31.2% and put on 9.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .285 xwOBA against him. Tyler Mahle (RHP, ATL) projects to strike out 21.5% and put on 8.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
LAD's bullpen has 91% of its usual relief work rested (61 weighted pitches over the last three days). ATL's bullpen has 83% of its usual relief work rested (93 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Truist Park plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 79°F with 3 mph wind; Tripp Gibson has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+15% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-14% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAD 59% · ATL 41% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAD 4.9 – 3.8 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 8.6 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| LAD starter | Tyler Glasnow (RHP): projected 31.2% strikeouts, 9.6% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| ATL starter | Tyler Mahle (RHP): projected 21.5% strikeouts, 8.2% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.7%) |
Los Angeles Dodgers · Atlanta Braves · Tyler Glasnow · Tyler Mahle
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