Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-10-06
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 51% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series at Truist Park, with a projected score of LAD 4.0, ATL 3.7 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, LAD) projects to strike out 26.7% and put on 8.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 6.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .258 xwOBA against him. Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 31.0% and put on 8.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .264 xwOBA against him.
LAD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (59 weighted pitches over the last three days). ATL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (72 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Truist Park plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 75°F with 6 mph wind; James Hoye has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-17% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-13% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAD 51% · ATL 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAD 4.0 – 3.7 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| LAD starter | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP): projected 26.7% strikeouts, 8.0% walks + HBP, 6.1 innings |
| ATL starter | Chris Sale (LHP): projected 31.0% strikeouts, 8.0% walks + HBP, 5.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.6%) |
Los Angeles Dodgers · Atlanta Braves · Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Chris Sale
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