Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers projection, 2026-10-04
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 66% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with a projected score of ATL 4.2, LAD 5.6 and about 9.8 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Ray Kerr (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 23.1% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.3 innings. Blake Snell (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 31.0% and put on 11.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .283 xwOBA against him.
ATL's bullpen has 71% of its usual relief work rested (119 weighted pitches over the last three days); Brent Suter, AJ Smith-Shawver are likely unavailable. LAD's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (52 weighted pitches over the last three days).
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium plays 0% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 95°F with 4 mph wind; Chris Guccione has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is weather (+9% to their expected runs) and for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+13% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 34% · LAD 66% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 4.2 – 5.6 LAD |
| Projected total runs | 9.8 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| ATL starter | Ray Kerr (LHP): projected 23.1% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 4.3 innings |
| LAD starter | Blake Snell (LHP): projected 31.0% strikeouts, 11.6% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| Ballpark | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (run factor +0.5%) |
Atlanta Braves · Los Angeles Dodgers · Ray Kerr · Blake Snell
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