Paul Skenes projection
Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) projects to strike out 29.2% of batters, walk or hit 8.0% and allow home runs to 2.40%, working about 5.5 innings per start.
2026 season: 32 starts, 174.3 innings, 200 strikeouts, 60 walks + HBP, 20 home runs.
2025 Statcast: xwOBA allowed 0.255, CSW 28.795%.
Whiff rate 30.1%, barrels allowed 5.8%, hard-hit rate 40.1%. Projections are regressed toward league average by sample size (2034 batters faced in the weighted sample), so small samples move less.
Recent starts
| Date | Innings | Pitches |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 6.3 | 96 |
| 2026-09-18 | 6 | 89 |
| 2026-09-12 | 7 | 82 |
| 2026-09-06 | 5.3 | 87 |
| 2026-09-01 | 4.7 | 95 |
Runs allowed per nine innings this season: 4.23. How these numbers feed each game projection is explained on the methodology page, and how to read a pitcher projection explains each number above.
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