How the college basketball model works

Every D-I team carries opponent- and venue-adjusted points scored and allowed per 100 possessions and possessions per 40 minutes, re-solved daily from every game so far. Preseason numbers start from last season's final ratings pulled toward average by returning minutes and toward the conference. A game's possessions are both tempos minus the league tempo; each side scores its offence plus the opponent's defence minus the league average, plus half the home-court edge (3.125 points).

Backtest

• 2018-19: 5602 games, winners 73%, margin miss 8.97 (closing line 8.8), ATS 50.8%, totals 50.3%
• 2019-20: 5325 games, winners 73%, margin miss 8.99 (closing line 8.73), ATS 48.4%, totals 50.5%
• 2020-21: 3945 games, winners 71%, margin miss 9.36 (closing line 9.06), ATS 49.7%, totals 48.5%
• 2021-22: 5472 games, winners 72%, margin miss 8.85 (closing line 8.62), ATS 49%, totals 50.5%
• 2022-23: 5713 games, winners 71%, margin miss 9.02 (closing line 8.98), ATS 50.1%, totals 50.3%
• 2023-24: 5722 games, winners 72%, margin miss 9.13 (closing line 8.84), ATS 50.7%, totals 48.9%
• 2024-25: 5756 games, winners 72%, margin miss 9.12 (closing line 8.8), ATS 50.1%, totals 49.5%
• 2025-26: 5751 games, winners 72%, margin miss 9.28 (closing line 8.94), ATS 50.7%, totals 49.7%

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.