College basketball track record

Backtest 2023-24 → 2025-26 (never used for fitting): winners 72% over 17229 games; against closing spreads 50.5%, totals 49.4%; margin miss 9.18 vs the closing line's 8.86.

This season: 1 graded games.

Every signal

• Model +2 fav → Favourite covers (edge): 1830-1915, typical 50%
• Model +4 fav → Favourite covers (edge): 258-258, typical 50%
• Model +6 fav → Favourite covers (edge): 25-31, typical 50%
• Model +2 dog → Underdog covers (edge): 6102-6082, typical 50%
• Model +4 dog → Underdog covers (edge): 2377-2335, typical 50%
• Model +6 dog → Underdog covers (edge): 1054-984, typical 50%
• Model +3 over → Over (edge): 4126-4404, typical 50%
• Model +6 over → Over (edge): 763-859, typical 50%
• Model +3 under → Under (edge): 2249-2203, typical 50%
• Model +6 under → Under (edge): 409-424, typical 50%
• Model picks dog → Underdog wins (edge): 1363-1769, typical 44%
• Track meet → Over (preset): 1681-1603, typical 50%
• Grind-it-out → Under (preset): 1418-1520, typical 50%
• Defensive struggle → Under (preset): 2211-2217, typical 50%
• Open floor → Over (preset): 2857-3012, typical 50%
• Firepower vs a sieve → Over (preset): 673-672, typical 50%
• Lockdown vs a cold offence → Under (preset): 594-700, typical 50%
• Road favourite → Fav covers (preset): 5147-5226, typical 50%
• Big home favourite → Fav covers (preset): 2389-2592, typical 50%
• Ranked vs ranked → Dog covers (preset): 327-359, typical 50%
• Top-25 vs outside 150 → Fav covers (preset): 656-653, typical 50%
• Tired favourite → Dog covers (preset): 1156-1083, typical 50%
• Rested underdog → Dog covers (preset): 2451-2483, typical 50%
• Long-range underdog → Dog covers (preset): 4030-3954, typical 50%
• Turnover hunters → Dog covers (preset): 3616-3401, typical 50%
• Long trip underdog → Fav covers (preset): 2723-2596, typical 50%
• Tempo clash → Under (preset): 7285-7203, typical 50%
• Coin flip → Favourite wins (tag): 4146-3160, typical 56%
• Upset alert → Underdog wins (tag): 579-1405, typical 30%
• Favourite holds → Favourite wins (tag): 5838-250, typical 93%
• Blowout brewing → Favourite covers (tag): 1696-1780, typical 50%
• Leans high → Over (tag): 2164-2250, typical 50%
• Leans low → Under (tag): 1620-1805, typical 50%
• High-scoring alert → Over (alert): 333-395, typical 50%
• Low-scoring alert → Under (alert): 200-210, typical 50%
• Mismatch alert → Favourite covers (alert): 1820-1903, typical 50%
• Dog +150–250 → Underdog wins (dog): 3589-7593, typical 33%
• Dog +250–500 → Underdog wins (dog): 1849-7696, typical 22%
• Model likes dog ML → Underdog wins (dog): 2338-5203, typical 32%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Both outside 150 → Underdog covers (study): 630-503, typical 50%
• Fav won 3+ · Fav cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 267-196, typical 50%
• Dec · Both slow → Favourite covers (study): 284-215, typical 50%
• Dog won 3+ · Fav cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 244-187, typical 50%
• Dog O-boards · Dog lost 3+ → Underdog covers (study): 441-350, typical 50%
• Fav cold ATS · Dog +250–500 → Favourite covers (study): 518-407, typical 50%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Fav outside 100 → Underdog covers (study): 1255-1043, typical 50%
• Dog rest edge · Dog long trip → Favourite covers (study): 360-288, typical 50%
• Dog outside 150 · Dog O-boards → Underdog covers (study): 1619-1349, typical 50%
• Total <130 · Fav lost last → Over (study): 759-636, typical 50%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Dog lost 3+ → Underdog covers (study): 988-838, typical 50%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Fav 3-pt heavy → Over (study): 675-568, typical 50%
• Dec · Dog O-boards → Underdog covers (study): 648-539, typical 50%
• Nov · Both slow → Under (study): 342-268, typical 50%
• Fav 3-pt heavy · Fav long trip → Over (study): 277-217, typical 50%
• Spread 7.5–12 · Fav cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 511-422, typical 50%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Fav hot ATS → Over (study): 691-564, typical 50%
• Non-conf · Dog O-boards → Underdog covers (study): 951-800, typical 50%
• Top-25 fav · Dog rest edge → Favourite covers (study): 349-291, typical 50%
• Elite D vs weak O · Fav won 3+ → Over (study): 247-189, typical 50%
• Dec · Dog long trip → Favourite covers (study): 605-518, typical 50%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Dog O-boards → Underdog covers (study): 317-258, typical 50%
• Both weak D · Fav rest edge → Under (study): 382-284, typical 50%
• Both weak D · Dog O-boards → Underdog covers (study): 238-186, typical 50%
• Fav 3-pt heavy · Fav blowout last → Over (study): 608-531, typical 50%
• Spread 12.5–20 · Fav elite D → Over (study): 662-596, typical 50%
• Fav cold ATS · Dog hot ATS → Favourite covers (study): 338-292, typical 50%
• Dog 3-pt heavy · Dog O-boards → Underdog covers (study): 476-404, typical 50%
• Fav cold ATS · Dog cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 613-528, typical 50%
• Fav long trip · Dog lost 3+ → Over (study): 262-216, typical 50%
• Dog elite D · Dog hot ATS → Favourite covers (study): 269-224, typical 50%
• Top-50 fav · Elite D vs weak O → Over (study): 433-364, typical 50%
• Fav elite D · Elite D vs weak O → Over (study): 384-321, typical 50%
• Dog elite O · Dog +150–250 → Favourite covers (study): 302-253, typical 50%
• Postseason · Fav elite O → Under (study): 399-334, typical 50%
• Top-50 fav · Fav cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 364-297, typical 50%
• Dog rest edge · Fav cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 249-208, typical 50%
• Dog long trip · Dog cold ATS → Favourite covers (study): 365-329, typical 50%
• Dog won 3+ · Fav cold ATS → Under (study): 236-197, typical 50%
• Postseason · Tempo clash → Under (study): 549-467, typical 50%
• Spread 20+ · Dog forces TOs → Underdog covers (combo): 34-10, typical 52%

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.