Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 28.7, Auburn 20.1 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: LSU wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.6 points and 48.7 combined points.
LSU (No. 18) is 5-2, scoring 40.4 and allowing 15.9 points per game (+24.5 per game). Auburn is 4-2, scoring 26.8 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+5 per game).
LSU's elite offense (7th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Auburn's strong defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of LSU's projected points come from. Expect Auburn to find it hard going: LSU's elite defense (8th) outranks Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between LSU by 31 and Auburn by 14 about 80% of the time.
Auburn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. LSU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: LSU 38, Auburn 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.4 points and the total by 6.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (LSU / Auburn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -7 | 52.5 | -295 / +230 |
| Opening line | LSU -6.5 | 50.5 | -225 / +185 |
| DraftKings | LSU -7 | 52.5 | -285 / +230 |
| FanDuel | LSU -7.5 | 52.5 | -310 / +245 |
| BetRivers | LSU -7 | 52 | -295 / +215 |
| BetMGM | LSU -7 | 51.5 | -285 / +230 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Auburn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -8.5 | 48.7 | 29% |
| Market consensus | LSU -7 | 52.5 | 30% |
| Blended projection | LSU -7.5 | 52.9 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Auburn win probability
- model 29% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -8.6 · market LSU -7 · difference -1.6 pts (Auburn view)
- Total
- model 48.7 · market 52.5 · difference -3.8
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward LSU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | LSU 28.7, Auburn 20.1 | LSU 71%right winner | 12.4 | 6.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: LSU 38, Auburn 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
LSU vs Auburn: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | LSU | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8#103 | 26.8#74 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.8#24 | 20.7#34 |
| Yards per play | 5.44#104 | 5.68#83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41#39 | 5.16#21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 121.1#124 | 195.7#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.8#80 | 190.1#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.4#32 | 111.0#7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.5#56 | 232.0#93 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.85#39 | 0.50#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.54#16 | 1.17#58 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#76 | 2.58#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.23#100 | 3.58#132 |
| Stat | LSU | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#107 | +0.04#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#11 | -0.07#32 |
| Success rate | 38.8%#114 | 43.6%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.9%#35 | 37.8%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#110 | 11.0%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#86 | 11.8%#54 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#19 | 13.7%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#116 | 14.2%#115 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.59#111 | 3.98#70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#25 | 3.63#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#51 | own 28#109 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#25 | own 30#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#111 | 67.9#50 |
| Stat | LSU | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#121 | +0.11#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#82 | -0.04#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#14 | -0.21#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#25 | +0.07#89 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2%#121 | 47.4%#28 |
| Passing success rate | 40.0%#86 | 39.7%#88 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.9%#135 | 15.8%#28 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#61 | 27.2%#108 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#63 | 30.9%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.0%#100 | 40.4%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3%#40 | 37.9%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.4%#113 | 51.3%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#88 | 59.0%#60 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: LSU schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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