Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas 27.1, Baylor 26.1 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Kansas wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 53.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Baylor is 4-2, scoring 30 and allowing 14.7 points per game (+15.3 per game). Kansas is 2-4, scoring 32 and allowing 24 points per game (+8 per game).
Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense) meets Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Baylor puts up. Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) meets Baylor's strong defense (41st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kansas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 22 and Kansas by 24 about 80% of the time.
Kansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Baylor would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on TNT.
Result: Baylor 24, Kansas 25. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Baylor / Kansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas -1.5 | 54.5 | -105 / -115 |
| Opening line | Baylor -2.5 | 53.5 | -134 / +112 |
| DraftKings | Kansas -1.5 | 54.5 | -102 / -118 |
| FanDuel | Kansas -1.5 | 54.5 | -105 / -114 |
| BetRivers | Kansas -1.5 | 55 | +100 / -124 |
| BetMGM | Kansas -1 | 54.5 | -105 / -115 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas -1 | 53.1 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Kansas -1.5 | 54.5 | 50% |
| Blended projection | Kansas -1.5 | 54.9 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 50% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas -1 · market Kansas -1.5 · difference -0.5 pts (Kansas view)
- Total
- model 53.1 · market 54.5 · difference -1.4
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Baylor than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Baylor 26.1, Kansas 27.1 | Kansas 53%right winner | 0.0 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Baylor 24, Kansas 25. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Baylor vs Kansas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Baylor | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.1#33 | 28.1#63 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.6#122 | 26.8#80 |
| Yards per play | 6.10#48 | 6.50#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#73 | 5.98#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.9#99 | 191.9#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 315.3#4 | 227.2#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.8#124 | 186.0#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.2#37 | 205.8#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58#124 | 1.08#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#70 | 0.58#123 |
| Sacks per game | 0.92#132 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#74 | 1.50#37 |
| Stat | Baylor | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#54 | +0.12#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#81 | +0.09#115 |
| Success rate | 44.7%#45 | 48.4%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#107 | 41.6%#68 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#58 | 15.1%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#30 | 14.2%#120 |
| Havoc rate | 10.1%#125 | 12.2%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#45 | 11.6%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.74#93 | 4.13#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.61#130 | 4.36#117 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#52 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#97 | own 27#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.7#3 | 64.5#93 |
| Stat | Baylor | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#57 | +0.14#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#62 | +0.09#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#107 | -0.02#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#57 | +0.20#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.0%#40 | 51.6%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9%#37 | 45.1%#31 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#34 | 13.7%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1%#26 | 33.2%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#61 | 32.4%#104 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7%#72 | 41.5%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.5%#54 | 41.9%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.0%#89 | 59.6%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.1%#103 | 64.9%#102 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Baylor schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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