Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rhode Island 31, Towson 22 at Centreville Bank Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Rhode Island wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 53.3 combined points.
Towson is 0-8 against the 18th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.5 and allowing 34.8 points per game (-12.3 per game). Rhode Island is 4-4 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.5 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Towson by 13 and Rhode Island by 32 about 80% of the time.
Rhode Island gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rhode Island by about 7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Towson vs Rhode Island: stat comparison
| Stat | Towson | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 24.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.65 | 5.46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.0 | 155.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.3 | 198.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.4 | 198.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.0 | 191.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.63 | 1.88 |
| Stat | Towson | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 42.2% | 39.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 42.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 15.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 4.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.53 | 3.78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 16 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Towson | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | -0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.5% | 41.3% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 34.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.3% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.1% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 30.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 43.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.3% | 41.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5% | 64.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.8% | 65.5% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Towson schedule · Rhode Island schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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