Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Illinois 38.5, Murray State 20.1 at Roy Stewart Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Southern Illinois wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.4 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Southern Illinois is 2-2, scoring 24.3 and allowing 30 points per game (-5.7 per game). Murray State is 1-3, scoring 13.8 and allowing 35.8 points per game (-22 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Illinois by 41 and Murray State by 4 about 80% of the time.
Murray State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southern Illinois is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern Illinois 46, Murray State 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.6 points and the total by 6.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Illinois / Murray State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern Illinois -17.5 | 54.5 → 53.5 | -820 / +520 |
| DraftKings | Southern Illinois -17.5 | 54.5 → 53.5 | -820 / +520 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Murray State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Illinois -18.5 | 58.5 | 11% |
| Market consensus | Southern Illinois -17.5 | 53.5 | 15% |
| Blended projection | Southern Illinois -18 | 54.3 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Murray State win probability
- model 11% · market (no-vig) 15% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Southern Illinois -18.4 · market Southern Illinois -17.5 · difference -0.9 pts (Murray State view)
- Total
- model 58.5 · market 53.5 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Southern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Illinois 38.5, Murray State 20.1 | Southern Illinois 89%right winner | 21.6 | 6.5 |
| New formula | Southern Illinois 37.6, Murray State 19.4 | Southern Illinois 88%right winner | 21.8 | 5.1 |
Final: Southern Illinois 46, Murray State 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Illinois vs Murray State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.4 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 38.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.96 | 5.45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 7.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.3 | 155.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.9 | 232.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.4 | 290.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.2 | 242.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 0.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.21 |
| Success rate | 47.3% | 41.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 53.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 11.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 15.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 8.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 2.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.65 | 3.34 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1 | 71.3 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.23 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.4% | 41.2% |
| Passing success rate | 43.8% | 42.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.5% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2% | 42.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.0% | 39.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.8% | 55.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.0% | 48.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.0% | 52.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Illinois schedule · Murray State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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