Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Norfolk State 48.5, Virginia Lynchburg 11.5 at William "Dick" Price Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Norfolk State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 37 points and 60 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Virginia Lynchburg is 0-3, scoring 1 and allowing 54 points per game (-53 per game). Norfolk State is 3-3, scoring 30.8 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+3.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Norfolk State by 14 and Norfolk State by 60 about 80% of the time.
Norfolk State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Norfolk State by about 34.9.
Result: Virginia Lynchburg 0, Norfolk State 62. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25 points and the total by 2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Virginia Lynchburg 11.5, Norfolk State 48.5 | Norfolk State 99%right winner | 25.0 | 2.0 |
| New formula | Virginia Lynchburg 9.7, Norfolk State 49.5 | Norfolk State 100%right winner | 22.2 | 2.8 |
Final: Virginia Lynchburg 0, Norfolk State 62. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Virginia Lynchburg vs Norfolk State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 8.7 | 20.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 55.7 | 35.6 |
| Yards per play | 3.95 | 6.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.04 | 5.80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 91.3 | 154.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.3 | 224.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 299.7 | 176.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 132.0 | 221.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00 | 2.42 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.2% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 12.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 3.26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.7 | 59.3 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.3% | 41.8% |
| Passing success rate | 26.4% | 41.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 29.1% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 26.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 32.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0% | 29.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 60.7% | 49.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 63.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia Lynchburg schedule · Norfolk State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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