Matchup analysis
Our model projects TBD 28, TBD 24 at TBD's home stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: TBD wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
TBD has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. TBD has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
TBD's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) meets TBD's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points TBD puts up. TBD's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) meets TBD's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points TBD puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TBD by 19 and TBD by 26 about 80% of the time.
TBD gets about 3.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field TBD would be dead even.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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More: TBD schedule · TBD schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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