Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
The model projects Detroit Pistons to win by 0.9 points (53% win probability), projected score DET 109, BOS 109, total 217.9 (80% range 194–241). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward DET).
Matchup
Boston Celtics rank 4 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.1 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); Detroit Pistons rank 8 (+3.9, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.2 points to Boston Celtics; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.9-point margin above. A 53% win probability means Detroit Pistons should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DET margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.3 (DET margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.0 (DET margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (DET margin)
Rest and travel
BOS: well rested. DET: well rested.
Projected minutes
BOS: Jayson Tatum 31, Derrick White 31, Paul George 30, Payton Pritchard 29, Sam Hauser 21, Neemias Queta 21, Baylor Scheierman 15, Mike Conley 13, Mitchell Robinson 12.
DET: Cade Cunningham 33, Elijah Harkless 25, Taurean Prince 24, Ausar Thompson 24, Jalen Duren 23, Daniss Jenkins 23, Duncan Robinson 23, John Collins 19, Kevin Huerter 10.
Four factors
| BOS (2025-26) | DET (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 117.2 | 114.4 |
| DRtg | 109.4 | 106.5 |
| Pace | 97.7 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.9% |
| FT rate | 0.207 | 0.292 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.7% |
Detroit Pistons · Boston Celtics · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.