2026-27 NBA season preview: projected standings
Every game on the 2026-27 schedule projected with current rosters, then the season simulated 5,000 times. Projected wins are out of 82.
Eastern Conference projected standings
| # | Team | Projected wins | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 54.8 | 54-29 |
| 2 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 51.7 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Boston Celtics | 51.2 | 56-26 |
| 4 | Toronto Raptors | 49.3 | 46-36 |
| 5 | Detroit Pistons | 48.8 | 60-22 |
| 6 | Philadelphia 76ers | 46.0 | 45-37 |
| 7 | Orlando Magic | 44.3 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Charlotte Hornets | 41.9 | 44-38 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 40.9 | 46-36 |
| 10 | Miami Heat | 40.3 | 43-39 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 33.4 | 19-63 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Bucks | 30.8 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.2 | 31-51 |
| 14 | Washington Wizards | 26.8 | 17-65 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 26.0 | 20-62 |
Western Conference projected standings
| # | Team | Projected wins | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.7 | 62-21 |
| 2 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 60.1 | 64-18 |
| 3 | Houston Rockets | 49.2 | 52-30 |
| 4 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 54-28 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.1 | 53-29 |
| 6 | Golden State Warriors | 42.5 | 37-45 |
| 7 | Phoenix Suns | 41.0 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Portland Trail Blazers | 40.9 | 42-40 |
| 9 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 38.2 | 49-33 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 34.8 | 22-60 |
| 11 | LA Clippers | 34.0 | 42-40 |
| 12 | New Orleans Pelicans | 33.9 | 26-56 |
| 13 | Dallas Mavericks | 30.8 | 26-56 |
| 14 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.2 | 25-57 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 27.2 | 22-60 |
How good are preseason projections?
Each season projected from the model state on the eve of opening night: coefficients fit on earlier seasons only, opening rosters = players who appeared for the team in its first three games, no injury information. Projected wins = sum of every game's win probability. Seed probabilities come from 5,000 simulated seasons with one team-strength shock per team (SD tau), tau chosen on 2018-19 and 2021-22 only.
Over 2022-23 to 2025-26 (120 team-seasons) the model's projected win totals missed by 7.8 wins on average, against 9.0 for last season's wins and 10.2 for 41 wins each. A "breakout players" list was tested and did not beat the base rate on the test seasons, so it is not published.
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.