Track record

Saved before tip-off, graded after the final — automatically.

The scheduled pipeline stores each game's projection in a public table before the game starts; the database refuses edits after tip-off. After the final score it grades the projection. Nothing is hand-picked or removed.

What to expect

The walk-forward backtest is the benchmark: 67.8% straight-up, margin MAE 10.66, Brier 0.207 over 4,923 games, using only information available before tip-off (including the injury report). The closing line did better on the same games (68.8%, margin MAE 10.42). Small samples swing: over 100 games, ±5 points of accuracy is normal noise.

Each graded game links to its game page with the projection, the final score and whether the favourite won. How the projections are made: methodology.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.