Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
The model projects New York Knicks to win by 5.8 points (69% win probability), projected score NYK 118, PHI 112, total 229.3 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.0 points toward NYK).
Matchup
Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.7 points against an average opponent, about 45 projected wins in 2026-27); New York Knicks rank 3 (+6.3, about 53 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.6 points to New York Knicks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.8-point margin above. A 69% win probability means New York Knicks should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (NYK margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.3 (NYK margin)
- Player on-court impact: +3.0 (NYK margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.9 (NYK margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (NYK margin)
Rest and travel
PHI: well rested. NYK: well rested.
Projected minutes
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
NYK: Jalen Brunson 36, OG Anunoby 32, Mikal Bridges 31, Josh Hart 30, Karl-Anthony Towns 28, Landry Shamet 19, Miles McBride 13, Jose Alvarado 10, Andre Drummond 10.
Four factors
| PHI (2025-26) | NYK (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.2 | 116.8 |
| DRtg | 112.4 | 110.4 |
| Pace | 102.3 | 99.4 |
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.6% |
| FT rate | 0.275 | 0.237 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.0% |
New York Knicks · Philadelphia 76ers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.