Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 0.9 points (53% win probability), projected score PHI 117, CLE 118, total 234.5 (80% range 211–258). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.7 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.1 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 (+2.7, about 45 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.4 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.9-point margin above. A 53% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (PHI margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.5 (PHI margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.7 (PHI margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (PHI margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (PHI margin)
Rest and travel
CLE: well rested. PHI: 1 day(s) of rest, 85 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
Four factors
| CLE (2025-26) | PHI (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.1 | 112.2 |
| DRtg | 112.1 | 112.4 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.275 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.1% |
Philadelphia 76ers · Cleveland Cavaliers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.