New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Boston Celtics to win by 1.1 points (54% win probability), projected score BOS 110, NYK 109, total 218.3 (80% range 195–242). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward BOS).
Matchup
New York Knicks rank 3 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+6.3 points against an average opponent, about 53 projected wins in 2026-27); Boston Celtics rank 4 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.2 points to New York Knicks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.1-point margin above. A 54% win probability means Boston Celtics should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (BOS margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.8 (BOS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.1 (BOS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.5 (BOS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.0 (BOS margin)
Rest and travel
NYK: 2 day(s) of rest, 188 miles of travel. BOS: 2 day(s) of rest, 612 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
NYK: Jalen Brunson 36, OG Anunoby 32, Mikal Bridges 31, Josh Hart 30, Karl-Anthony Towns 28, Landry Shamet 19, Miles McBride 13, Jose Alvarado 10, Andre Drummond 10.
BOS: Jayson Tatum 31, Derrick White 31, Paul George 30, Payton Pritchard 29, Sam Hauser 21, Neemias Queta 21, Baylor Scheierman 15, Mike Conley 13, Mitchell Robinson 12.
Four factors
| NYK (2025-26) | BOS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.8 | 117.2 |
| DRtg | 110.4 | 109.4 |
| Pace | 99.4 | 97.7 |
| eFG% | 55.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.2% |
| FT rate | 0.237 | 0.207 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.3% |
Boston Celtics · New York Knicks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.