Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 6.5 points (71% win probability), projected score SAS 115, HOU 109, total 224.3 (80% range 201–248). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.2 points toward SAS).
Matchup
Houston Rockets rank 6 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.6 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 6.5-point margin above. A 71% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.7 (SAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.2 (SAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.6 (SAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.6 (SAS margin)
Rest and travel
HOU: 1 day(s) of rest, 186 miles of travel. SAS: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
Four factors
| HOU (2025-26) | SAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.1 | 116.6 |
| DRtg | 109.9 | 108.7 |
| Pace | 99 | 102.5 |
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 26.3% |
| FT rate | 0.260 | 0.273 |
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.2% |
San Antonio Spurs · Houston Rockets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.