Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 4.1 points (63% win probability), projected score WAS 115, CHA 119, total 233.2 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.9 points toward CHA).
Matchup
Charlotte Hornets rank 15 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.9 points against an average opponent, about 41 projected wins in 2026-27); Washington Wizards rank 29 (−5.3, about 26 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.2 points to Charlotte Hornets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.1-point margin above. A 63% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (WAS margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (WAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: −4.9 (WAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.1 (WAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (WAS margin)
Rest and travel
CHA: 1 day(s) of rest, 396 miles of travel. WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, 305 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
Four factors
| CHA (2025-26) | WAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.7 | 108.1 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 119.6 |
| Pace | 99.9 | 104 |
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 24.1% |
| FT rate | 0.244 | 0.235 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 56.3% |
Washington Wizards · Charlotte Hornets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.