New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
The model projects New York Knicks to win by 0.6 points (52% win probability), projected score PHI 114, NYK 115, total 228.6 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.0 points toward NYK).
Matchup
New York Knicks rank 3 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+6.3 points against an average opponent, about 53 projected wins in 2026-27); Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 (+2.7, about 45 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.6 points to New York Knicks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.6-point margin above. A 52% win probability means New York Knicks should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (PHI margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.3 (PHI margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.0 (PHI margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.9 (PHI margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.8 (PHI margin)
Rest and travel
NYK: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 667 miles of travel. PHI: 1 day(s) of rest, 582 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
NYK: Jalen Brunson 36, OG Anunoby 32, Mikal Bridges 31, Josh Hart 30, Karl-Anthony Towns 28, Landry Shamet 19, Miles McBride 13, Jose Alvarado 10, Andre Drummond 10.
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
Four factors
| NYK (2025-26) | PHI (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.8 | 112.2 |
| DRtg | 110.4 | 112.4 |
| Pace | 99.4 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 55.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.237 | 0.275 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.1% |
Philadelphia 76ers · New York Knicks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.