Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 5.3 points (67% win probability), projected score DAL 111, HOU 117, total 228.1 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.7 points toward HOU).
Matchup
Houston Rockets rank 6 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 24 (−3.1, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.3 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.3-point margin above. A 67% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DAL margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.0 (DAL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.7 (DAL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.6 (DAL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.8 (DAL margin)
Rest and travel
HOU: 1 day(s) of rest, 857 miles of travel. DAL: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
Four factors
| HOU (2025-26) | DAL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.1 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 109.9 | 113.8 |
| Pace | 99 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 23.2% |
| FT rate | 0.260 | 0.287 |
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.6% |
Dallas Mavericks · Houston Rockets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.