Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 0.7 points (52% win probability), projected score PHX 116, DEN 117, total 232.4 (80% range 209–256). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.4 points toward DEN).
Matchup
Denver Nuggets rank 9 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.6 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Phoenix Suns rank 16 (+0.7, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.9 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.7-point margin above. A 52% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (PHX margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.4 (PHX margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.2 (PHX margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (PHX margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (PHX margin)
Rest and travel
DEN: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,312 miles of travel. PHX: 3 day(s) of rest, 840 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
DEN: Jamal Murray 29, Nikola Jokic 28, Cameron Johnson 24, Christian Braun 23, Lonnie Walker IV 22, Aaron Gordon 21, DeMar DeRozan 19, Spencer Jones 18, Marvin Bagley III 14.
PHX: Devin Booker 30, Jalen Green 27, Dillon Brooks 27, Miles Bridges 24, Luke Kennard 23, Oso Ighodaro 23, Collin Gillespie 21, Jordan Goodwin 17, Pat Spencer 15.
Four factors
| DEN (2025-26) | PHX (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 119.6 | 112.1 |
| DRtg | 114.5 | 110.6 |
| Pace | 100.8 | 100.1 |
| eFG% | 57.7% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 28.9% |
| FT rate | 0.294 | 0.225 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.1% |
Phoenix Suns · Denver Nuggets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.