Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Orlando Magic to win by 3.6 points (62% win probability), projected score ORL 118, ATL 114, total 232.1 (80% range 209–256). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.4 points toward ORL).
Matchup
Atlanta Hawks rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.6 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Orlando Magic rank 12 (+2.1, about 43 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.5 points to Orlando Magic; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.6-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Orlando Magic should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ORL margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.4 (ORL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.1 (ORL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (ORL margin)
Rest and travel
ATL: well rested. ORL: well rested.
Projected minutes
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
ORL: Paolo Banchero 31, Desmond Bane 28, Jalen Suggs 27, Wendell Carter Jr. 26, Anthony Black 23, Franz Wagner 22, Jamal Cain 15, Nikola Vucevic 15, Tristan da Silva 13.
Four factors
| ATL (2025-26) | ORL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.3 | 112 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 55.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 25.0% |
| FT rate | 0.234 | 0.311 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.5% |
Orlando Magic · Atlanta Hawks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.