Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Washington Wizards to win by 0.3 points (51% win probability), projected score WAS 118, MIL 118, total 236.5 (80% range 213–260). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.1 points toward MIL).
Matchup
Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.5 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Washington Wizards rank 29 (−5.3, about 26 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.8 points to Milwaukee Bucks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.3-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Washington Wizards should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (WAS margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.5 (WAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.1 (WAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (WAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (WAS margin)
Rest and travel
MIL: well rested. WAS: well rested.
Projected minutes
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
Four factors
| MIL (2025-26) | WAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 110.3 | 108.1 |
| DRtg | 116.5 | 119.6 |
| Pace | 99.9 | 104 |
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| FT rate | 0.223 | 0.235 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 56.3% |
Washington Wizards · Milwaukee Bucks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.