Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 4.3 points (64% win probability), projected score BKN 111, CHA 115, total 225.9 (80% range 202–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.6 points toward CHA).
Matchup
Charlotte Hornets rank 15 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.9 points against an average opponent, about 41 projected wins in 2026-27); Brooklyn Nets rank 30 (−5.5, about 25 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.4 points to Charlotte Hornets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.3-point margin above. A 64% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (BKN margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.7 (BKN margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.6 (BKN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.2 (BKN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (BKN margin)
Rest and travel
CHA: well rested. BKN: well rested.
Projected minutes
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
BKN: Julius Randle 24, Michael Porter Jr. 23, Ben Saraf 21, Tyson Etienne 20, Drake Powell 20, Egor Demin 19, E.J. Liddell 18, Terance Mann 16, Danny Wolf 16.
Four factors
| CHA (2025-26) | BKN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.7 | 105.9 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 115.9 |
| Pace | 99.9 | 99.6 |
| eFG% | 55.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.6% |
| FT rate | 0.244 | 0.272 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 57.1% |
Brooklyn Nets · Charlotte Hornets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.