Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 10.3 points (81% win probability), projected score TOR 123, CHI 113, total 235.9 (80% range 212–259). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.9 points toward TOR).
Matchup
Chicago Bulls rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.9 points against an average opponent, about 29 projected wins in 2026-27); Toronto Raptors rank 7 (+4.2, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 8.1 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 10.3-point margin above. A 81% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (TOR margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.6 (TOR margin)
- Player on-court impact: +3.9 (TOR margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.6 (TOR margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (TOR margin)
Rest and travel
CHI: well rested. TOR: well rested.
Projected minutes
CHI: Josh Giddey 24, Leonard Miller 23, Matas Buzelis 22, Patrick Williams 21, Isaac Okoro 20, Tre Jones 19, Rob Dillingham 19, Guerschon Yabusele 18, Norman Powell 18.
TOR: RJ Barrett 31, Scottie Barnes 30, Kawhi Leonard 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jamal Shead 25, Collin Murray-Boyles 21, Immanuel Quickley 20, Jakob Poeltl 16, Andre Jackson Jr. 13.
Four factors
| CHI (2025-26) | TOR (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 110.6 | 112.9 |
| DRtg | 115.5 | 110.1 |
| Pace | 104.8 | 101 |
| eFG% | 54.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 25.5% |
| FT rate | 0.246 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.0% |
Toronto Raptors · Chicago Bulls · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.