Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Memphis Grizzlies to win by 0.2 points (51% win probability), projected score MEM 123, UTA 123, total 246.4 (80% range 223–270). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.4 points toward UTA).
Matchup
Utah Jazz rank 21 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.8 points against an average opponent, about 34 projected wins in 2026-27); Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 (−3.8, about 28 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.0 points to Utah Jazz; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.2-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Memphis Grizzlies should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MEM margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.4 (MEM margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.6 (MEM margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (MEM margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (MEM margin)
Rest and travel
UTA: well rested. MEM: well rested.
Projected minutes
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
Four factors
| UTA (2025-26) | MEM (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.3 | 109.9 |
| DRtg | 119.2 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 104.9 | 104.1 |
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 24.7% |
| FT rate | 0.277 | 0.251 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 56.2% |
Memphis Grizzlies · Utah Jazz · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.