Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects New Orleans Pelicans to win by 2.6 points (59% win probability), projected score NOP 122, IND 119, total 241.2 (80% range 218–265). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward NOP).
Matchup
Indiana Pacers rank 23 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−1.8, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.5 points to New Orleans Pelicans; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.6-point margin above. A 59% win probability means New Orleans Pelicans should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (NOP margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.7 (NOP margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.4 (NOP margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (NOP margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (NOP margin)
Rest and travel
IND: well rested. NOP: well rested.
Projected minutes
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
Four factors
| IND (2025-26) | NOP (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.3 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 116 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 103.4 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 27.0% |
| FT rate | 0.252 | 0.284 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.5% |
New Orleans Pelicans · Indiana Pacers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.