Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 9.5 points (79% win probability), projected score HOU 119, DAL 110, total 228.7 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.7 points toward HOU).
Matchup
Dallas Mavericks rank 24 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.1 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+4.2, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.3 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 9.5-point margin above. A 79% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (HOU margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.1 (HOU margin)
- Player on-court impact: +3.7 (HOU margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.6 (HOU margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (HOU margin)
Rest and travel
DAL: well rested. HOU: well rested.
Projected minutes
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
Four factors
| DAL (2025-26) | HOU (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 115.1 |
| DRtg | 113.8 | 109.9 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 99 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 34.8% |
| FT rate | 0.287 | 0.260 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 53.0% |
Houston Rockets · Dallas Mavericks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.