Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Portland Trail Blazers to win by 2.6 points (59% win probability), projected score POR 117, PHX 114, total 230.3 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward POR).
Matchup
Phoenix Suns rank 16 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.7 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 (+1.1, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.4 points to Portland Trail Blazers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.6-point margin above. A 59% win probability means Portland Trail Blazers should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (POR margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.8 (POR margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.4 (POR margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.1 (POR margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (POR margin)
Rest and travel
PHX: well rested. POR: well rested.
Projected minutes
PHX: Devin Booker 30, Jalen Green 27, Dillon Brooks 27, Miles Bridges 24, Luke Kennard 23, Oso Ighodaro 23, Collin Gillespie 21, Jordan Goodwin 17, Pat Spencer 15.
POR: Jrue Holiday 29, Deni Avdija 28, Toumani Camara 26, Damian Lillard 23, Ja Morant 23, Scoot Henderson 22, Micah Potter 19, Donovan Clingan 19, Robert Williams III 16.
Four factors
| PHX (2025-26) | POR (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.1 | 111 |
| DRtg | 110.6 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 100.1 | 103.6 |
| eFG% | 53.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.3% |
| FT rate | 0.225 | 0.280 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.1% |
Portland Trail Blazers · Phoenix Suns · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.