Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects LA Clippers to win by 4.8 points (66% win probability), projected score LAC 116, SAC 111, total 227.5 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.3 points toward LAC).
Matchup
Sacramento Kings rank 28 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); LA Clippers rank 22 (−2.2, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.6 points to LA Clippers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.8-point margin above. A 66% win probability means LA Clippers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (LAC margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (LAC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.3 (LAC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.6 (LAC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (LAC margin)
Rest and travel
SAC: well rested. LAC: well rested.
Projected minutes
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
LAC: Rui Hachimura 31, Darius Garland 25, Brook Lopez 24, Brandon Ingram 23, Max Strus 22, Kris Dunn 21, Derrick Jones Jr. 20, Bradley Beal 18, Isaiah Jackson 14.
Four factors
| SAC (2025-26) | LAC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 114.5 |
| DRtg | 118.4 | 113.3 |
| Pace | 101.8 | 98.9 |
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 23.7% |
| FT rate | 0.256 | 0.295 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 54.5% |
LA Clippers · Sacramento Kings · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.