Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 1.6 points (56% win probability), projected score CHA 114, ATL 113, total 226.7 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward CHA).
Matchup
Atlanta Hawks rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.6 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Charlotte Hornets rank 15 (+0.9, about 41 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.3 points to Charlotte Hornets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.6-point margin above. A 56% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CHA margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.6 (CHA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.6 (CHA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (CHA margin)
Rest and travel
ATL: 1 day(s) of rest, 463 miles of travel. CHA: 1 day(s) of rest, 531 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
Four factors
| ATL (2025-26) | CHA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.3 | 115.7 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 30.5% |
| FT rate | 0.234 | 0.244 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.0% |
Charlotte Hornets · Atlanta Hawks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.