Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Indiana Pacers to win by 2.4 points (58% win probability), projected score IND 120, DAL 118, total 237.6 (80% range 214–261). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward IND).
Matchup
Dallas Mavericks rank 24 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.1 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Indiana Pacers rank 23 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.8 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.4-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Indiana Pacers should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (IND margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.9 (IND margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.1 (IND margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.3 (IND margin)
Rest and travel
DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 866 miles of travel. IND: 1 day(s) of rest, 714 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
Four factors
| DAL (2025-26) | IND (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 108.3 |
| DRtg | 113.8 | 116 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 103.4 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 21.7% |
| FT rate | 0.287 | 0.252 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 55.6% |
Indiana Pacers · Dallas Mavericks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.