Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Orlando Magic to win by 3.6 points (62% win probability), projected score ORL 118, MIN 114, total 231.6 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward ORL).
Matchup
Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−0.1 points against an average opponent, about 37 projected wins in 2026-27); Orlando Magic rank 12 (+2.1, about 43 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.2 points to Orlando Magic; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.6-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Orlando Magic should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ORL margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.1 (ORL margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.1 (ORL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (ORL margin)
Rest and travel
MIN: 1 day(s) of rest, 204 miles of travel. ORL: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
ORL: Paolo Banchero 31, Desmond Bane 28, Jalen Suggs 27, Wendell Carter Jr. 26, Anthony Black 23, Franz Wagner 22, Jamal Cain 15, Nikola Vucevic 15, Tristan da Silva 13.
Four factors
| MIN (2025-26) | ORL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.8 | 112 |
| DRtg | 110.5 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 55.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 25.0% |
| FT rate | 0.285 | 0.311 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.5% |
Orlando Magic · Minnesota Timberwolves · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.