Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 8.2 points (75% win probability), projected score WAS 114, TOR 122, total 235.2 (80% range 212–259). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.3 points toward TOR).
Matchup
Toronto Raptors rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Washington Wizards rank 29 (−5.3, about 26 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 9.5 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 8.2-point margin above. A 75% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (WAS margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.4 (WAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: −5.3 (WAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.0 (WAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.1 (WAS margin)
Rest and travel
TOR: 1 day(s) of rest, 350 miles of travel. WAS: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
TOR: RJ Barrett 31, Scottie Barnes 30, Kawhi Leonard 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jamal Shead 25, Collin Murray-Boyles 21, Immanuel Quickley 20, Jakob Poeltl 16, Andre Jackson Jr. 13.
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
Four factors
| TOR (2025-26) | WAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.9 | 108.1 |
| DRtg | 110.1 | 119.6 |
| Pace | 101 | 104 |
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.1% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.235 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 56.3% |
Washington Wizards · Toronto Raptors · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.