Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Milwaukee Bucks to win by 1.8 points (56% win probability), projected score MIL 119, CHI 117, total 235.8 (80% range 212–259). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward MIL).
Matchup
Chicago Bulls rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.9 points against an average opponent, about 29 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−3.5, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.4 points to Milwaukee Bucks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.8-point margin above. A 56% win probability means Milwaukee Bucks should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.7 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.1 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.1 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
CHI: 1 day(s) of rest, 431 miles of travel. MIL: 1 day(s) of rest, 636 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
CHI: Josh Giddey 24, Leonard Miller 23, Matas Buzelis 22, Patrick Williams 21, Isaac Okoro 20, Tre Jones 19, Rob Dillingham 19, Guerschon Yabusele 18, Norman Powell 18.
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
Four factors
| CHI (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 110.6 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 115.5 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 104.8 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 54.7% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.246 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.8% |
Milwaukee Bucks · Chicago Bulls · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.