New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Utah Jazz to win by 1.5 points (55% win probability), projected score UTA 124, NOP 123, total 246.9 (80% range 223–271). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward UTA).
Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.8 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 21 (−1.8, about 34 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.0 points to Utah Jazz; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.5-point margin above. A 55% win probability means Utah Jazz should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (UTA margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.5 (UTA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.2 (UTA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.3 (UTA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (UTA margin)
Rest and travel
NOP: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,433 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,248 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
Four factors
| NOP (2025-26) | UTA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.3 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 119.2 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 104.9 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.284 | 0.277 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 57.8% |
Utah Jazz · New Orleans Pelicans · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.