Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Golden State Warriors to win by 6.3 points (70% win probability), projected score GSW 122, MEM 115, total 237.1 (80% range 214–261). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.9 points toward GSW).
Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.8 points against an average opponent, about 28 projected wins in 2026-27); Golden State Warriors rank 13 (+1.5, about 41 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.3 points to Golden State Warriors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 6.3-point margin above. A 70% win probability means Golden State Warriors should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (GSW margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.9 (GSW margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.9 (GSW margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (GSW margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −0.2 (GSW margin)
Rest and travel
MEM: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,797 miles of travel. GSW: 1 day(s) of rest, 345 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
GSW: Brandin Podziemski 23, Stephen Curry 22, Draymond Green 22, Moses Moody 22, Gui Santos 21, Jimmy Butler III 21, De'Anthony Melton 17, Kristaps Porzingis 17, Al Horford 16.
Four factors
| MEM (2025-26) | GSW (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 109.9 | 112 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 112.6 |
| Pace | 104.1 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 25.8% |
| FT rate | 0.251 | 0.238 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 55.3% |
Golden State Warriors · Memphis Grizzlies · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.