Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Portland Trail Blazers to win by 4.6 points (65% win probability), projected score SAC 112, POR 117, total 229.2 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.0 points toward POR).
Matchup
Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.1 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Sacramento Kings rank 28 (−4.8, about 27 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.9 points to Portland Trail Blazers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.6-point margin above. A 65% win probability means Portland Trail Blazers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAC margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.0 (SAC margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.3 (SAC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.6 (SAC margin)
Rest and travel
POR: 1 day(s) of rest, 484 miles of travel. SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 365 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
POR: Jrue Holiday 29, Deni Avdija 28, Toumani Camara 26, Damian Lillard 23, Ja Morant 23, Scoot Henderson 22, Micah Potter 19, Donovan Clingan 19, Robert Williams III 16.
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
Four factors
| POR (2025-26) | SAC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 111.3 | 118.4 |
| Pace | 103.6 | 101.8 |
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.9% |
| FT rate | 0.280 | 0.256 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 57.2% |
Sacramento Kings · Portland Trail Blazers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.