Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 12.4 points (85% win probability), projected score CLE 121, BKN 109, total 229.9 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (5.5 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Brooklyn Nets rank 30 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.5 points against an average opponent, about 25 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 10.6 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 12.4-point margin above. A 85% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CLE margin)
- Player box-score production: +5.5 (CLE margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.1 (CLE margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.0 (CLE margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.5 (CLE margin)
Rest and travel
BKN: 2 day(s) of rest, 405 miles of travel. CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, 359 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
BKN: Julius Randle 24, Michael Porter Jr. 23, Ben Saraf 21, Tyson Etienne 20, Drake Powell 20, Egor Demin 19, E.J. Liddell 18, Terance Mann 16, Danny Wolf 16.
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
Four factors
| BKN (2025-26) | CLE (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 105.9 | 116.1 |
| DRtg | 115.9 | 112.1 |
| Pace | 99.6 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 26.9% |
| FT rate | 0.272 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 54.3% |
Cleveland Cavaliers · Brooklyn Nets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.