Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Philadelphia 76ers to win by 10.3 points (81% win probability), projected score PHI 122, MIL 111, total 232.9 (80% range 209–257). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.9 points toward PHI).
Matchup
Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.5 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 (+2.7, about 45 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.2 points to Philadelphia 76ers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 10.3-point margin above. A 81% win probability means Philadelphia 76ers should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (PHI margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.9 (PHI margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.7 (PHI margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.6 (PHI margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.8 (PHI margin)
Rest and travel
MIL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 694 miles of travel. PHI: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
Four factors
| MIL (2025-26) | PHI (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 110.3 | 112.2 |
| DRtg | 116.5 | 112.4 |
| Pace | 99.9 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.223 | 0.275 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 54.1% |
Philadelphia 76ers · Milwaukee Bucks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.