Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 1.8 points (56% win probability), projected score ATL 112, HOU 114, total 226.3 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.8 points toward HOU).
Matchup
Houston Rockets rank 6 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Atlanta Hawks rank 17 (+0.6, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.6 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.8-point margin above. A 56% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ATL margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.7 (ATL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.8 (ATL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (ATL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.6 (ATL margin)
Rest and travel
HOU: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 878 miles of travel. ATL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 227 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
Four factors
| HOU (2025-26) | ATL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.1 | 113.3 |
| DRtg | 109.9 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 99 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 24.4% |
| FT rate | 0.260 | 0.234 |
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.6% |
Atlanta Hawks · Houston Rockets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.