Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Chicago Bulls to win by 3.0 points (60% win probability), projected score CHI 124, WAS 121, total 245.1 (80% range 222–269). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.4 points toward CHI).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.3 points against an average opponent, about 26 projected wins in 2026-27); Chicago Bulls rank 27 (−3.9, about 29 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.4 points to Chicago Bulls; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.0-point margin above. A 60% win probability means Chicago Bulls should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CHI margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (CHI margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.4 (CHI margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.3 (CHI margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.3 (CHI margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 597 miles of travel. CHI: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 81 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
CHI: Josh Giddey 24, Leonard Miller 23, Matas Buzelis 22, Patrick Williams 21, Isaac Okoro 20, Tre Jones 19, Rob Dillingham 19, Guerschon Yabusele 18, Norman Powell 18.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | CHI (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 110.6 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 115.5 |
| Pace | 104 | 104.8 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 23.1% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.246 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 55.3% |
Chicago Bulls · Washington Wizards · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.