San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 10.8 points (82% win probability), projected score DAL 111, SAS 122, total 233.5 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.9 points toward SAS).
Matchup
San Antonio Spurs rank 1 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+8.8 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 24 (−3.1, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 11.9 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 10.8-point margin above. A 82% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DAL margin)
- Player box-score production: −4.8 (DAL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −5.9 (DAL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.2 (DAL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −0.2 (DAL margin)
Rest and travel
SAS: second night of a back-to-back, 252 miles of travel. DAL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 764 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
Four factors
| SAS (2025-26) | DAL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.6 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 108.7 | 113.8 |
| Pace | 102.5 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 23.2% |
| FT rate | 0.273 | 0.287 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.6% |
Dallas Mavericks · San Antonio Spurs · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.